It should be understood at the outset that the Church Growth Institute fully recognizes that church buildings do not produce church growth. Considered here are possible ways in which church buildings can hinder church growth. The limits considered here are not prescriptive rules. They simply are descriptions of observed reality.

Diagnostic church growth studies conducted by the Institute have found among churches of Christ the same pattern observed by church growth researchers in many other religious groups. Some churches will not grow until they have more room for growth.

Researchers, writers, and consultants have recognized for a long time the importance of the 90 percent limit. Most churches in the United States have been unable to sustain their growth rate when they have gone beyond 90 percent of capacity in regard to parking space, classroom space, and seating capacity in the auditorium.

Whenever a church grows beyond 90 percent of capacity in any one of these areas, especially with regard to auditorium seating capacity, the growth curve begins to resemble a wave pattern. The growth rate begins to decline at about 90 percent of capacity. Growth stops at around 95 percent. Attendance then declines to around the 85 percent level. Then the cycle is repeated over and over.

It appears that only when a congregation is engaged in a building program so the members see relief in the near future do congregations grow consistently beyond the 90 percent upper limit.

Perhaps in an ideal world things would not be this way. Perhaps the members should be willing to tolerate more crowding. This is not a description of what ought to be-just a description of what is.

Previous research has not considered the other side of the space problem. Researchers have not investigated what happens in declining congregations as attendance reaches lower and lower levels. That is what the recent study was designed to explore.

The method employed in this study involved an examination of attendance records covering a period of at least 10 years in 60 congregations all churches of Christ and all in the United States. All of these congregations had experienced a drastic decline in attendance. Half of these churches had since merged with other congregations or disbanded. The rest continued to function, but with reduced staff and programs. All had experienced a gradual decline averaging 3 percent per year for several years followed by a much sharper decline averaging 12 percent per year.

For this study, annual attendance averages were converted into percentages reflecting the amount of capacity being used. First, averages were examined for the largest assembly in the auditorium; then, on a class-by-class basis, for attendance in the typical adult class and, finally, for the parking space. The purpose was to find the point (the percentage of capacity being used) where the gradual decline ended and the sharp decline began. Results of this study showed that the point separating the gradual decline from the sharp decline tended to occur at about 40 percent of capacity. When attendance declines to a point of around 40 percent of capacity, members may develop a very negative attitude regarding the church.

They may lose all hope of any improvement. They may decide the church is dying and it is time to move to another church with better prospects for survival and possibly even for growth. What may develop is a self- fulfilling prophecy similar to that involved in a run on a bank. A church really may be a long way from dying, but if many of the members conclude that it is dying and move away, it will die.

Several years ago, I spoke at an evangelism workshop that had 4,000 people in attendance. Churches of Christ never had seen such a large gathering in that particular state. The meeting should have been regarded as a great success. Instead, people thought it was a failure because those 4,000 people were in a civic auditorium that had a seating capacity of 12,000.

These research findings suggest that the 90 percent upper limit is not the only limit to consider in regard to space utilization. In churches with declining attendance, the 40 percent lower limit may be an even more important factor to consider.

If a church is at or near the 40 percent lower limit, there are several things it should do. The first and most important thing is to find out why attendance has declined, determine what the congregation needs to do to reverse the decline, and then do it. An outside consultant can be of great service in such an effort.

In the short run, however, it may be necessary to stop going below the 40 percent lower limit before the church can begin growing toward that 90 percent upper limit. it may be necessary to modify the space utilization in order to reverse the decline.

An important principle to learn from this is that the crowd and the room need to fit. The room should not be so small as to put the crowd beyond the 90 percent upper limit or so large as to put the crowd below the 40 percent lower limit. If an assembly is utilizing less than 40 percent of the capacity, that assembly should be moved to a smaller room if possible. A Wednesday night or Sunday night assembly, for example, might be moved to a chapel, fellowship hall, or large classroom. It may help to remodel the auditorium, take out some pews, and use that space for some other purpose.

Those who are most interested in church growth may see any such move as an admission of defeat and a step backward. It is necessary, however, to face reality before that reality can be changed. This is not pessimism. it is realism. Sometimes it is necessary to take what looks like a step backward in order to reverse a decline and begin moving forward again. Proper space utilization cannot produce church growth, but improper space utilization can hinder growth.