Table 1 lists the 15 largest religious groups in America ranked by decadal growth rate percentages for the 1980s. Church statisticians generally make comparisons of growth rate percentages within church size categories in order to make such comparisons valid. If a denomination had only 1,000 members in 1980 and grew to a membership of 1,500 by 1990, that would be a 50 percent decadal growth rate achieved with the addition of only 500 members. Churches of Christ would have to add more than half a million members and the Catholic Church would have to add more than 25 million members to match that same growth rate percentage. Comparisons, therefore, are generally made within three church size categories-the religious groups with: 1)1,000,000 or more adherents; 2)100,000 to 999,999 adherents; and, 3) fewer than 100,000 adherents.

Among the 15 largest religious groups in the nation, only five had a better decadal growth rate percentage than the Churches of Christ -- and one of these was the Christian Churches and Churches of Christ.

Nine of these larger denominations had a lower growth rate percentage and eight actually declined in the 1980s.

Were there some smaller religious groups that grew faster than the Churches of Christ in the 1980s?

Several smaller groups had a better growth rate percentage, but only four of these also had a larger increase in the total number of adherents-as did five of the larger groups. These figures are shown in Table 2. Only nine of the 245 religious groups in America had both a better growth rate percentage and a larger increase in the number of adherents than the Churches of Christ in the 1980s. Only eight had better growth than the Christian Churches and Churches of Christ.

If there has been no decline in the membership of the Churches of Christ, what is the explanation for the fact that in 1965, Churches of Christ were reporting a membership of 2,500,000 and yet in 1980 Mac Lynn's census study found less than 1,300,000?

Comparing these two figures is like comparing apples and oranges. These are different kinds of statistics. The 1965 figure of 2,500,000 was an estimate of how many people in the nation would say that they are members of the Church of Christ if anyone ever asked them. The 1980 figure of just under 1,300,000 was a report of how many people were actually identified with a local congregation. when a congregation conducts a religious census of its community, it typically finds that less than half of those who claim to be members of the Church of Christ are actually identified with a local congregation.

Another factor to consider is that the 1965 figure of 2,500,000 was based on an exaggerated estimate of the number of local congregations. Some of the lists back in 1965 were highly inflated because they reported the same congregation several times if it had used different mailing addresses over the years. The inflated estimate in 1965 was that there were 19,000 congregations of the Churches of Christ in the United States. That figure was wrong. There were never more than 13,000. But people took that inflated estimate of 19,000 congregations, multiplied that by the average number of members in a congregation, and then doubled that figure 50 as to include all those who would say that they are members of the Church of Christ if anyone ever asked them.

Churches of Christ in the United States did not decline in membership between 1965 and 1980. The surveys that I have conducted indicate that in 1965 there was an annual growth rate of 5 percent, but the growth rate declined by an average of 0.33 percent per year until it reached zero in 1980. Notice, however, that a decline in the rate of growth does not mean a decline in membership. Those surveys indicate a growth of 40 percent between 1965 and 1980. And if a 40 percent growth in 15 years sounds exaggerated, just remember that the Assemblies of God had a 34 percent growth rate in the 1980s and a 70 percent growth rate in the 1970s. Churches of Christ had even larger decadal growth rates in the two decades following World War II.

According to the nation-wide surveys that I have conducted every year, there was a very slight decline in membership in the 1980-1984 period, but the direction changed in 1984, the decline ended in 1985, and there was some modest growth throughout the last half of the decade.

The decadal growth rate in the 1980s was much smaller than in previous decades, but it was growth.

Would the report on Churches of Christ in the United States in the 1980s have shown a decline if it had not been for the rapid growth experienced by the Discipling Movement led by Kip McKean?

No. Membership in Churches of Christ in this nation grew by 43,236 between 1980 and 1990. The Discipling Movement had only 46 congregations with 18,816 members in the United States in 1990. That is only 44 percent of the total growth for all kinds of Churches of Christ. Furthermore, some of that growth came from taking over existing congregations previously identified with what was then called the "Crossroads Movement."

If the figures from the Discipling Movement are excluded, would that reduce the growth rate figures for all other Churches of Christ in the 1980s?

Yes. That would bring the decadal growth rate down to approximately 2 percent growth in membership instead of 3.5 percent. Notice, however, that this figure would be the decadal growth rate for all kinds of Churches of Christ. The figure would not be that low for the "mainline" Churches of Christ, i.e., those in fellowship with a majority of other congregations.

One third of the congregations listed in Churches of Christ in the United States have some doctrine or practice that sets them apart and limits their fellowship with the majority of congregations. These congregations account for almost 19 percent of the total membership. In 1990, the Discipling Movement led by Kip McKean accounted for only 0.4 percent of the congregations and 1.5 percent of the members. The Discipling Movement grew rapidly in the 1980s, but most of the other groups with limited fellowship declined. These declining fellowships include those identified as "Non-Institutional;' "Non-Class;' "One Cup;' "Mutual Edification;' and "Premillennial:' The decline in these fellowships had to be offset by growth in the "mainline" congregations for there to have been a 2 percent growth among all kinds of Churches of Christ with the Discipling Movement figures excluded. If the focus is limited to the "mainline" Churches of Christ, their growth rate was at least 5 percent in the 1980s.

The good news is that Churches of Christ are not declining. The bad news is that a growth rate of only 5 percent among the "mainline" Churches of Christ for an entire decade is not much growth. It is less than half the growth experienced in the population during that same period. Population in the United States increased by 11.2 percent in the 1980s. A growth rate of only 5 percent for the entire decade is not really significant growth. The safest conclusion one can reach is that Churches of Christ in the United States are not declining -- but there has been very little significant growth since 1980. Some people are having an identity crisis because of their perception that the Stone-Campbell Restoration Movement has produced only a couple of very small insignificant groups that are now rapidly declining. They need to know that their negative perceptions are based on faulty data. This movement is one of the largest indigenous religious movements in the history of America. And both the instrumental and non-instrumental heirs of this movement are growing better than 235 of the 245 religious groups in America. The good news is not as good as it ought to be, but it is a lot better than the bad news some are reporting.

NOTES

By John Ellas:

Flavil Yeakley's article "Good News and Bad News" in our first quarter issue of 1994 received enthusiastic response. The issue has already sold out Since then, Flavil has written a booklet) Separating Fact from Fiction: A Realistic Assessment of the Churches of Christ in the United States. This resource offers an incredible wealth of information. about the growth trends of churches. The following article is adapted from this new publication. For details on ordering the complete booklet, please refer to the advertisement section.